A new study has revealed which Premier League clubs struggle the most in the Saturday lunchtime slot.
The study, by BetVictor, analysed Premier League results and closing odds across the five completed seasons from 2021/22 to 2025/26, comparing clubs’ actual points per game in Saturday lunchtime fixtures against the number of points they were expected to take based on the closing odds.
Tottenham take the top spot on the list. Across 17 Saturday lunchtime fixtures, Spurs averaged 1.35 points per game, compared to an expected 1.54 – leaving them 0.19 points per game below expectation.
Second place goes to Everton. The Toffees averaged just 0.75 points per game across 16 Saturday lunchtime fixtures, compared to an expected 0.87 – a shortfall of 0.12 points per game.
Liverpool takes the third spot on the list. Across 22 lunchtime games, the Reds averaged 1.91 points per game, compared to an expected 2.01, working out to 0.10 points per game below expectation.
Fourth place goes to Newcastle United, with an average of 1.21 points per game across 14 Saturday lunchtime fixtures. Based on the closing odds, Newcastle were expected to average 1.26 points per game, a difference of 0.05.
Manchester City ranks in at fifth place. City averaged 2.04 points per game across 23 lunchtime fixtures, compared to an expected 2.06.
Rounding out the list in sixth place is Arsenal. Across 19 qualifying fixtures, the Gunners averaged 1.84 points per game, almost exactly in line with the 1.85 expected.
Interestingly, while six current Premier League clubs underperformed expectations, the league-wide data suggests the Saturday lunchtime slot may not actually be as cursed as it is made out to be.
Across 126 Saturday lunchtime games, the favourite failed to win 50 times, a failure rate of 39.7%. For comparison, favourites failed in 45.0% of other weekend fixtures, including 44.3% of Saturday 3pm games and 44.4% of Sunday fixtures.
Based on the closing odds, favourites were expected to fail in 44.0% of Saturday lunchtime games, meaning the actual failure rate was more than four percentage points lower than expected.
At the other end of the table, Aston Villa massively outperformed expectations, averaging 2.15 points per game across 13 Saturday lunchtime fixtures, compared to an expected 1.30. Chelsea also outperformed expectations, averaging 1.89 points per game against an expected 1.73.
The six Premier League clubs most affected by the Saturday lunchtime “curse”:
Rank | Club | Saturday lunchtime games | Actual PPG | Expected PPG | PPG vs expectation |
1. | Tottenham | 17 | 1.35 | 1.54 | -0.19 |
2. | Everton | 16 | 0.75 | 0.87 | -0.12 |
3. | Liverpool | 22 | 1.91 | 2.01 | -0.10 |
4. | Newcastle United | 14 | 1.21 | 1.26 | -0.05 |
5. | Manchester City | 23 | 2.04 | 2.06 | -0.01 |
6. | Arsenal | 19 | 1.84 | 1.85 | -0.01 |
