New research has revealed the UK areas where businesses are facing the highest risk of closure, with Mansfield taking the top spot.
The study, conducted by insurance experts at Alan Boswell Group, looked at official ONS Business Demography data across UK local authority areas. Each area was ranked using a risk score based on three factors: the business closure rate in 2024, the five-year survival rate for businesses born in 2019, and the balance between new businesses opening and existing businesses closing.
The UK areas where businesses are most at risk of closing
| Rank | Area | Region / Country | Risk score | Closure rate | 5-year survival rate | Net openings vs closures |
| 1 | Mansfield | East Midlands | 86.4 | 18.0% | 42.7% | -5.5% |
| 2 | Blackpool | North West | 85.3 | 16.2% | 33.9% | -4.1% |
| 3 | Torfaen | Wales | 82.3 | 15.9% | 36.5% | -4.2% |
| 4 | Salford | North West | 71.7 | 13.3% | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | South Derbyshire | East Midlands | 67.5 | 13.0% | 41.6% | -3.7% |
| 6 | North Northamptonshire | East Midlands | 66.3 | 11.9% | 30.2% | -0.3% |
| 7 | Wolverhampton | West Midlands | 65.7 | 13.8% | 34.7% | 0.8% |
| 8 | Doncaster | Yorkshire and The Humber | 65.0 | 12.6% | 29.7% | 1.4% |
| 9 | Rhondda Cynon Taf | Wales | 64.9 | 11.7% | 34.5% | -1.6% |
| 10 | Rugby | West Midlands | 63.7 | 12.1% | 34.3% | -0.5% |
Mansfield ranks as the UK area where businesses are most at risk of closing, with a risk score of 86.4out of 100. The East Midlands area had the highest closure rate in the ranking, with 660 business closures from 3,665 active businesses in 2024. This gives Mansfield a closure rate of 18.0%, compared with the UK average of 9.8%.
Mansfield also had the weakest balance between openings and closures in the top 10. The area recorded 460 business openings and 660 closures in 2024, meaning closures outnumbered openings by 200. This gives Mansfield a net opening and closure balance of -5.5%.
Blackpool ranks second, scoring 85.3 out of 100. The North West town recorded 710 business closures from 4,395 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 16.2%. Its five-year survival rate also sits below the UK average, with just 33.9% of businesses born in 2019 still active five years later.
Torfaen places third and is the highest-ranking area in Wales, with a score of 82.3. The area recorded 440 business closures from 2,760 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 15.9%. It also saw more businesses close than open in 2024, with a net balance of -4.2%.
Salford ranks fourth, with a risk score of 71.7. Although openings and closures were exactly balanced in 2024, with 1,510 businesses opening and 1,510 closing, the area had one of the lowest five-year survival rates in the ranking. Just 28.2% of businesses born in 2019 were still active in 2024.
South Derbyshire completes the top five, scoring 67.5. The area had a closure rate of 13.0%, with 540 closures from 4,145 active businesses. It also recorded a negative opening and closure balance of -3.7%, after 385 businesses opened and 540 closed.
North Northamptonshire ranks sixth, with a score of 66.3. The area recorded 1,960 business closures from 16,490 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 11.9%. Its ranking is also driven by a low five-year survival rate of 30.2%.
Wolverhampton follows in seventh place, scoring 65.7. The West Midlands city had a closure rate of 13.8%, with 1,305 business closures from 9,480 active businesses. Its five-year survival rate stands at 34.7%.
Doncaster ranks eighth, with a risk score of 65.0. The area recorded 1,390 business closures from 11,035 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 12.6%. It also had one of the lowest five-year survival rates in the top 10, at 29.7%.
Rhondda Cynon Taf places ninth and is the second Welsh area in the top 10, scoring 64.9. It recorded a closure rate of 11.7% and a five-year survival rate of 34.5%.
Rugby completes the top 10, with a score of 63.7. The Warwickshire area recorded 620 closures from 5,105 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 12.1%. It also saw slightly more businesses close than open in 2024.
The UK areas where businesses are least at risk of closing
| Rank | Area | Region / Country | Risk score | Closure rate | 5-year survival rate | Net openings vs closures |
| 1 | Isles of Scilly | South West | 7.6 | 5.9% | 66.7% | 2.9% |
| 2 | Shetland Islands | Scotland | 14.1 | 5.7% | 63.6% | 1.0% |
| 3 | Fermanagh and Omagh | Northern Ireland | 20.3 | 5.2% | 48.1% | 3.6% |
| 4 | Mid Ulster | Northern Ireland | 20.4 | 5.4% | 54.5% | 1.4% |
| 5 | Torridge | South West | 26.5 | 6.7% | 53.7% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Powys | Wales | 28.4 | 6.7% | 50.0% | 1.4% |
| 7 | Gwynedd | Wales | 29.8 | 7.5% | 55.2% | -0.1% |
| 8 | Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon | Northern Ireland | 30.7 | 7.2% | 49.2% | 1.4% |
| 9 | Dumfries and Galloway | Scotland | 31.5 | 6.7% | 46.6% | 1.4% |
| 10 | Cambridge | East | 31.9 | 8.0% | 48.0% | 2.4% |
At the other end of the ranking, the Isles of Scilly has the lowest business closure risk in the study, with a score of 7.6 out of 100. The area recorded just 10 business closures from 170 active businesses in 2024, giving it a closure rate of 5.9%. It also had the strongest five-year survival rate in the ranking, with 66.7% of businesses born in 2019 still active in 2024. However, the area has a small survival cohort, so the figure should be treated with caution.
The Shetland Islands rank second among the least-risk areas, scoring 14.1. The Scottish area recorded 55 closures from 960 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 5.7%. Its five-year survival rate was also high, at 63.6%, although this is also based on a small survival cohort.
Fermanagh and Omagh ranks third, with a score of 20.3. The Northern Ireland area recorded the lowest closure rate in the least-risk top 10, at 5.2%, with 270 closures from 5,210 active businesses. It also had one of the strongest opening and closure balances, with openings outnumbering closures by 3.6%.
Mid Ulster follows in fourth place, scoring 20.4. The area recorded a closure rate of 5.4%. It also recorded 465 business openings and 370 closures in 2024, leaving a positive net balance of 1.4%. Its five-year survival rate stands at 54.5%.
Torridge completes the top five least-risk areas, with a score of 26.5. The South West area recorded 175 closures from 2,615 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 6.7%. Its five-year survival rate was also strong, at 53.7%.
Powys ranks sixth and is the lowest-risk area in Wales, scoring 28.4. The area recorded a closure rate of 6.7%, with 390 closures from 5,830 active businesses. It also saw more businesses open than close in 2024, with a net balance of 1.4%.
Gwynedd ranks seventh, with a score of 29.8. The area recorded a closure rate of 7.5% and a five-year survival rate of 55.2%. It was the only area in the least-risk top 10 where closures slightly outnumbered openings, with a net balance of -0.1%.
Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon places eighth, scoring 30.7. The Northern Ireland area had a closure rate of 7.2%, with 530 closures from 7,335 active businesses. It also recorded a five-year survival rate of 49.2%.
Dumfries and Galloway ranks ninth, with a score of 31.5. The Scottish area recorded 310 closures from 4,650 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 6.7%. Its opening and closure balance was positive, at 1.4%.
Cambridge completes the least-risk top 10, scoring 31.9. The city recorded 430 business closures from 5,375 active businesses, giving it a closure rate of 8.0%. It also had one of the strongest net balances in the group, with openings outnumbering closures by 2.4%.
Heath Alexander-Bew, Personal Lines Director at Alan Boswell Group, commented: “When almost one in five active businesses in an area close in a single year, it shows just how much pressure some local firms are under. For most small business owners, shutting down is not a quick decision. It usually comes after months of dealing with higher costs, quieter trading, late payments, staffing challenges or unexpected expenses.
“What is concerning about places like Mansfield, Blackpool and Torfaen is that the pressure is showing in more than one way. These areas are not only seeing high closure rates, but in some cases more businesses are closing than opening. That can have a real knock-on effect locally, from empty units on high streets to less confidence among other business owners.
“The five-year survival figures also show how difficult it can be for new businesses to get through the early years. Starting a business takes a lot of confidence, but keeping it going through rising costs, changing customer habits and unpredictable trading periods is often the bigger challenge.
“For business owners, this is a reminder to keep checking the basics before problems build up. Cash flow, supplier terms, stock, equipment, premises and insurance cover should all be reviewed regularly, especially if the business has changed. A firm may have taken on more stock, moved premises, added staff or started selling online, and if the protection in place has not kept up, an already difficult situation can become much harder to recover from.”
