Sports economists have modelled how much the severity of any points penalty imposed on Manchester City would make to other Premier League sides, with Arsenal, Spurs, Brentford and Man Utd predicted to benefit.
Tottenham Hotspur’s risk of relegation from the Premier League would roughly halve if Manchester City were given a 60-point deduction, according to new forecasts from the University of Reading.
Spurs are bottom of the table after five matches and currently have a 12% chance of dropping to the Championship, according to the model created by sports economists. That risk falls to 6% if City are docked 60 points, which would leave City almost certain (99%) to be relegated instead.
City were reported last week to have been found guilty of 114 of the 115 charges brought against them by the Premier League over breaches of its financial rules. No punishment has yet been announced, but other clubs that have previously fallen foul of the same rules have been issued points deductions.
The forecast was produced by Professor James Reade, a sports economist at the University of Reading. It shows how every Premier League club’s chances of winning the title, qualifying for Europe or being relegated would change under scenarios where Manchester City receives deductions of between 10 and 60 points.
Professor Reade said: “The size of City’s penalty will decide their season. A 30-point deduction would leave them in mid-table. At 40 points they would face a real fight to stay up, and at 50 points or more they would very likely go down.
“The effects would be felt across the league. Arsenal would become firm favourites to retain the title. Brentford and Brighton would have close to an even chance of Champions League football. Clubs near the bottom, Spurs included, would have one fewer rival to finish above.
“These changes carry a large price tag. Each league place was worth about £3.8 million in Premier League prize money last season. Champions League qualification brought every English club at least £56 million, and staying in the Premier League is worth well over £100 million. A heavy deduction would cost City a large share of that, while a place or two higher could be worth millions to other clubs.”
How the Premier League could look
Professor Reade’s model was developed using data based on each team’s attacking and defensive strength from results so far this season. The model considers teams’ strengths from results so far and then plays out every remaining match 100,000 times.
Each percentage shows how often an outcome happened across those simulated seasons. For example, with no penalty for City, Spurs were relegated in 12% of the simulated seasons. When City were docked 60 points, that fell to 6%.
The figures are probabilities, not predictions, and they will change as the season goes on.
The model suggests:
- Brentford‘s chance of qualifying for the Champions League rises from 33% to 49% if City are docked 60 points. Brighton‘sises from 31% to 46%, Newcastle‘s from 23% to 38% and Chelsea‘s from 16% to 27%.
- Arsenal‘s chance of retaining the title rises from 67% to 81% with a 10-point deduction for City, and to 83% with 20 points or more.
- Liverpool‘s title chance rises only from 9% to 12%, even with a heavy penalty for City.
- Manchester United‘s chance of a European place stays below 0.1% whatever the penalty. However, their relegation risk falls from 42% to 27% if City are docked 60 points.
- Ipswich Town, the side at greatest risk of relegation, would see their chance of going down fall from 70% to 54%.
Find out quantified predictions of how all Premier League teams would be affected by different penalties for Manchester City in the files attached, or via the University of Reading news website.
